Pitt is off a big win vs. Notre Dame so they are automatically over valued in this game, but North Carolina has quietly moved themselves back into position to compete for a bowl game after a 1-5 start. When you look at their schedule they really have had a tough schedule and have lost to 5 good teams. UNC has really stepped up on both sides of the ball as the defense is now getting a better pass rush 7.84% in their last 3. That's an issue for Pitt because they have not been able to protect Tom Savage (116th in pass protection) and their rushing offense is not good enough to take advantage of North Carolina's weakness which is their run defense. Pitt has averaged 1.91 ypc in conference play and 3.49 overall. They only time they ran for more than 4 yards per carry was against New Mexico, the worst run defense in the nation and Old Dominion.
North Carolina on the flip side has been great on offense despite losing their QB Bryan Renner. Marqise Williams has sparked the running game and has been good enough in the passing game because of the weapons he has at his disposal with TE Eric Ebron and WR Quinshad Davis being two of the best in the ACC at their respective positions. Pitt will be missing two of their CB's so UNC should be able to expose them in some packages and the ability to run as a QB only makes it harder for Pitt to defend. Pitt just got done allowing 5.8 ypc to Notre Dame a team that has not been able to run it all year with any consistency. UNC should be able to score and play defense and come up with a big win to keep their bowl hopes alive.
